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Coronavirus 2020


Marc1

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Results back today and they are negative. i wasn't too worried as I survived gangrene, tuberculosis, and lead poisoning of the accelerated metallic kind ... but my wife was a bit down. She is happy back in her surgery. 

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It seems like things are getting a little crazy, so here is my take on this. I just got off the phone with my wife who is an executive at a small critical access hospital in southern Ohio. I'm sure anyone who is really interested has done their own research into this, but here are my thoughts.

The Governor of the state of Ohio closed all schools in the state for 3 weeks effective Monday. He is also banning all visitors from seeing patients in hospitals and nursing homes, along with gathering over 100 people. The reason for such large steps is essentially, Italy. It spread through Italy quickly and their heath care system was overrun and as a result they had a extremely high death rate compared to most other counties. Slowing the spread will help the hospitals handle patients at a slower rate if it is needed.

Closing the schools had her concerned for a more socioeconomic reason. That area of the state has a lot of poverty. Unfortunately there are quite a few kids who rely on school for their breakfast, lunch, and sometimes dinner. They are trying to get a plan in place to get these kids what they need.

Should you be worried? It depends on your age and health history. Even though I'm younger I fall into the higher risk category since I've had pneumonia twice, and I'm married to someone in heath care. I'm personally not worried. For kids under 10 there are no known cases. The average, healthy adult that does not have respiratory issues or some other underlying heath problem has very little risk. So if you're a healthy adult, don't panic. Even if you get it you would probably think its the regular flue and be over it and a couple days and move on. If you are older then 65, or have an underlying medical issue you already know to be on your toes during flue season and know the precautions you should take. The death rate for people under 65 is like 0.2% and that doesn't count the millions of people who have had it, recovered, and never got tested. I do have some family members I'm worried about, but I was worried about them even before this virus.

PPE and hording supplies. If you are a healthy person you do not need to walk around wearing a mask, and by all means DON'T HOARD THEM. Believe it or not most hospitals and first responders don't have pallets of PPE in a warehouse somewhere. Please save them for the people who actually need them. We are coming to the end of the "regular" flue season and stocks are running low, some places have been on a supply ration for months. I'm not even going to get into the silliness of carts full of TP and paper towels.....

In closing, just be a good person. If you have an elderly neighbor, don't put them in danger,  but see if they need anything. If you know of a family with some kids that could use some help, try to lend a hand. Be patient and just stay calm.

(Disclaimer - I am not a heath care professional, nor do I play one on TV. This is just my thoughts and opinion.)

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There is only one purpose of this panic and I can't go into it or I'll be kicked off the forum.  Other than that, the only thing I can say is I wish everyone would quit hyping this panic.  over 15,000 people died from H1N1............39 have died from Corona, so far, and 27 of those were living in one nursing home.  Just stay home and stay away from large gatherings as has been said and use plain old common sense.  Don't hoard, don't panic and don't support the on-going fear.  We have flu and virus epidemics every single year and they always go away and we always get through to the other side.  This stupid panic is destabilizing our country and it's ridiculous.  (not the disease, the unnecessary panic)

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Good perspective in the police link above.  The media and a lot of people seem to think that this is the Black Death or ebola.  It isn't.  The only problem I am seeing is that we are having difficulty finding TP for normal use.   I guess I stopped expecting people to be rational a long time ago.  sigh.

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7 hours ago, Chris C said:

ic.  over 15,000 people died from H1N1

In the 2017-2018 flu season approximately 82,000 people died in the US from the H1N3 strain, including my mother. I contracted it also. It was by no means pleasant and it took a few months to recover. Unless you're immune compromised, very young or elderly there's a good chance you won't even have symptoms if you do contract it and nearly a zero chance of dying. 

Pnut

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5 hours ago, pnut said:

In the 2017-2018 flu season approximately 82,000 people died in the US from the H1N3 strain, including my mother. I contracted it also. It was by no means pleasant and it took a few months to recover. Unless you're immune compromised, very young or elderly there's a good chance you won't even have symptoms if you do contract it and nearly a zero chance of dying. 

Pnut

Really sorry for your loss, Pnut. 

My numbers may be wrong, but my implication was that we all need to keep this latest illness in perspective.  After all, this isn't The Black Plague and we aren't all going to die because of it. [Political content deleted]   I talk with people around me who actually think they need to hoard supplies and hide in their storm shelters for the next two months and not intermingle with other human beings.  (give me a break!) This panic is getting out of control and it's egregious for it to be at this level when it's senseless.  (just my opinionated two cents worth!)

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I expect to be out of work soon.  My day job is slow in winter anyway so I took on a second job evenings at the local Coliseum since they needed another electrician.

Yesterday our Governor declared there shall be no gatherings of over 250 people, and ad that to the Local Hockey team canceling the season as well as  NBA G league Basketball team,  and the NCAA Basketball Tourney we were hosting have also just been shutdown after they already made changes of no spectators to the games before it was canceled.

Many of the reservations for meeting places here have also been postponing or canceling as well, so there is little left to do, I spent the past 2 shifts changing out old light bulbs in the fire exits and food storage areas.  The current Alpaca exhibition for this weekend may be the last show we have for a while and they have also restricted attendance to exhibitors only, no spectators and they are talking about closing schools for 4 weeks.

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18 minutes ago, ThomasPowers said:

Now Chris; think how much nicer it will be while they are gone---like a college town in the summer when few of the students are there.

Amen to that, Thomas.

13 minutes ago, Steve Sells said:

I expect to be out of work soon. 

Really sorry to hear that, Steve.  That's going to be the result of much of this panic........good people are going to financially suffer because of the biased reporting of the media.

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The info in the police article is quite good, so far as the morbidity rate goes. However, it completely neglects an equally -- and perhaps more -- important aspect, which is the rate and speed of infection. In other words, it's not just about how any individual is affected, but how many people are affected and how quickly. What makes Covid-19 particularly nasty is not that it kills everyone who gets it (it doesn't), but that it spreads very easily and very quickly (mostly because, unlike the flu, there is no vaccine). If you remember exponential growth from middle school math, you know that the sooner exponential growth starts, the faster you get big results (which is the same argument for investing for retirement sooner rather than later, but I digress). In other words, a lot more people are going to get sick. 

With a larger section of the population affected and needing medical care, the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, and not everyone who needs care can get it. This is what we see happening in Italy, where they didn't intervene soon enough, and now their hospitals are having to make decisions about who gets a ventilator and who doesn't.

The "Deaths per Day" in the police article is not particularly helpful, because it doesn't give any context for either geographic spread (US only? Worldwide?) or time-frame (for example, 365 deaths on December 31 is only one Death per Day if you do a yearly average). It also doesn't take into account the fact that the numbers given are historical, and we simply don't have the true numbers on Covid-19 yet.

I just read an excellent article on the difficulties of projecting the actual impact of Covid-19. It describes a briefing at the CDC that projected four different scenarios, based on variations in infection rate (each infected person passes the disease to either two or three people), hospitalization rate (3% or 12% of those infected), and mortality rate (0.25% or 1%) of those exhibiting symptoms (in other words, not including asymptomatic carriers). Based on those numbers, the total infections could range from 160 million to 214 million; hospitalizations, from 2.4 million to 21 million; and total deaths, from 200,000 to 1.7 million. That's a pretty huge spread, but even the most optimistic projections are a lot higher than the CDC's historical data for the seasonal flu: 9 million to 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations, and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

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Sorry to hear about the possibility of no work for you Steve. I hope it doesn't come to that. I just got a call this morning that they are cutting off all visitors from the nursing home for probably 2 to 3 weeks. I'm worried my mom will wonder why nobody is coming to see her and not understand why

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Thank you my friend. It's such a weird feeling day. The world is shutting down and it's raining cats and dogs and the forecast calls for solid rain for several days. My friend sent me ads from the internet where they are selling bottles of hand sanitizer for over $30 a bottle and cases of water for $25. Its the craziest thing I've ever seen

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Soap and water is as effective as commercial hand sanitizers.  Water wells are better than bottled water anyway.

(deleted my last sentence because it might be misconstrued as "political" rather than public news)

 

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the main hard rhing for me, and i imagine for others is not to let the media get you down. its just horrible how terrifies people seem to be over this. If i go to make a new tab on my browser, there are tones of news articles saying, in short, "we are all going to die!" Even though im in idaho, were we have yet ro have a single confirmed case, and i am a 14 year old boy in good health,  i find myself lowkey freaking out after going to a concert or to the park. The only good rhing ro come from this is the habit of constantly washing my hands, which if this does ever get bad, is a good thing to havd in my opinion. My advise is to just under that there have been many different pandemics before and they all ended. This is  the black plague and it wont kill those who are healthy. Like i say earlier, take your vitamin c and d, wash your hands a lot, dont eat extra sugars and you'll produce be fine. If it does get bad i recommended you go to a friend's house who lives the country and has a well for water and other than that, have faith in God and if your not religious, trust the government to do there job. 

Ill also be praying for your mom crazygoatlady.

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