rockstar.esq

Again, Thank you Doc.

Admanfrd. There have been several threads discussing similar ideas so you might want to check them out. I wish you luck - make sure you check with whoever runs the festival. Some have table fees. Some have a commission that decides who gets invited and so on. It might be a process that you'd need to start well in advance of the festival.

John, Jaques, Where I work if the messenger hasn't been shot it just means management is reloading! The facts and figures I bring to them don't resonate for several reasons. The most significant is that they don't track their own job accounts with enough precision to see what works and what doesn't. The old "common pot" technique conceals lots of information. For example: the job ran over on labor costs but caught a break with a profitable change order. The manager doesn't see where the problem is and the ownership doesn't realize how much they're losing in the process. Nobody complains because the common pot job account is "Net positive". Another reason they don't want to hear me is because I'm telling them something they don't want to hear. Every company is going to have an efficiency of scale. Toyota makes a car cheaper than I could because they've built their infrastructure to meet their business model. Entrepreneurs are naturally ambitious and optimistic. I've found that very few can accurately define their target market, key profit makers, or even their most effective practices for making money. I've found they consistently think that "big, new, and long term" are all qualities to strive for when selecting opportunities. They love the notion that they'll camp out on a job site for a good long time and just make steady paychecks. They rationalize that brand new stuff is "clean" and "easy" as compared to say - remodels. None of them consider that the laws of economics will govern all. If everyone's convinced something is better - competition will mount around those opportunities. The potential profit is therefore diminished, your odds of winning are lower, and the client knows they don't have to try as hard (so they don't). Winning such work generally requires you bid with less profit. Everything that made the job "clean and easy" will be used to deny change order requests for stuff everyone missed. Another way to define this situation is risk. You're committing your company resources for a long time to this low profit venture with low odds of change orders. Basically you've waived the opportunity to do other, possibly smaller jobs for higher profit. The monetary difference to your bottom line is called the "opportunity cost". Taking the big job is potentially still a risk to your bottom line. In contrast, the humble contractor who chases ugly remodel projects often doesn't compete as much for them. These folks are specialists who've built their operations to be efficient at producing one thing in the market. Their knowledge and client relationships effectively reduce risk by driving design decisions and including contingency funding to cover changes. Way too many entrepreneurs think their business is held together by the gravitational pull of their charm. Market downturns push the country club buddies aside because you simply can't compete when people aren't on top of their game. These guy's get their false footing during good times and commonly their only corporate strategy is "Growth". Cancer operates along a similar line with the same outcome. The fact is, if you can't reliably find and win work you can do profitably - you're digging a financial hole. The key is to use your job accounting to determine what you're good at rather than accolades/complaints from the field. Chasing work that isn't profitable with the "plan" of sticking it to the owner in change orders is gambling. In the long run, the house always win on gambles. I don't care for those odds when providing for my family which is why I do honest work for a living. It's better to become rich doing something unpopular than going broke with your banner on the big job.

Nobody Special, Your comment made me laugh. I remember a gym teacher trudging up a set of steps when kids were yelling "FIGHT FIGHT". As he passed me by I heard him mutter "...better be a good one".

Frosty - thanks for the kind words, Steve. It's a shame that kind of thing goes on with the shady characters - they're bringing the slash and burn method to construction with similar long term impact on the system. Taking the agriculture analogy further, the guy's trying to harvest a dust bowl will take you down with them even if they don't try to cheat you.

Thought I'd mention that I've had occasion to learn that sometimes tightening a little before trying to loosen will work something loose. I watched a buddy who restored old vehicles patiently work a bolt in and out to preserve both the bolt and the part it was threaded to.

Ages ago I started trying to read a book Godel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid.by Hofstadter. It's a fairly intense study of how mathematics, Visual art, and Music can contain what the author calls "Strange loops". If you've ever seen an MC Escher work you'll see how he's got these impossible visual perspective works where people are ascending and descending staircases that all intersect in the drawing but couldn't do so in the physical world. The concept of the strange loop is that there's a pattern built into the work that propagates a diversion in your perception. Following from one point through the "flow" of the work there's never a point of clear error yet the outcome defies reason. J.S.Bach created a "King's"melody" where it sounds like the choir raises some portion of an octave every chorus giving the overall work a sense of building intensity. Obviously there's an upper limit to the singer's voices but owing to Bach's "Strange loop" the melody always allowed kept the piece within the singers range. Listening to the work it's not obvious that the rising melodies start over when they reach a limit but it must have happened nonetheless. That was a lot of words to explain that our perspective gets modified by patterns even if we see the pattern. The way that depression metastasizes itself in it's host is to present "change nothing" as the best option whenever there's a choice. Lots of folks fall into a cycle where they think "If I do this I'll feel better about that". If that pattern is familiar and you're still depressed - that might be be your "strange loop". The result is that you're "tried everything" but you're still in the same place. Misdirection is the key to slight of hand. Speaking for myself, placing significance on some physical action/achievement to fix an emotional state is intuitive, logical, and not at all how emotions work. It's really hard to develop acceptance of emotions we're telling ourselves are wrong. Justifying emotions to tell ourselves we're really someone different is dishonest at best and cruel at worst. I found I was less angry when I quit trying to justify why I was angry. I spent years pushing different outlets for the anger until I learned that acceptance broke my strange loop. It's hard to wrap your head around the idea that after you accept yourself for who you are - you change. In my case I became a whole lot less angry. In hindsight it makes sense that I was provoking myself. Anger when you're provoked is reasonable - so is cooling off when it stops. I don't mean to pretend to have the cure to depression - I'm glad blacksmithing helps you. I think selfless acts lead to warm hearts. The more I try to barter with life to improve my emotions - the lonelier things feel. I recently read something to the effect that evil isn't from villainous planing and machinations. Evil actions are usually the result of people doing what they think will make them happy and ignoring the consequences to others. To that end, I'm deeply impressed by how compassionate the members of this forum are to one another.

Thanks Doc.

I have been the Chief Estimator of an Electrical Contractor for the last four years. Prior to that I spent a few years as the estimator for a mid-sized commercial General Contractor. Recently I attended a professional seminar geared towards construction estimators (sounds fun huh?). That event left several impressions that I imagine the sponsors didn't intend. First off, an estimator from a GC piped up at one point exasperated that some subcontractors were not bidding exclusively to him. He was angry because he felt the explanation they provided (can't afford to put all our eggs in one basket) ignored that helping him win would lead to them getting work. This same gent later interrupted when the topic changed to discussing bid results post deadline. He stated that it was his policy to withhold bid results if he won (standard procedure) AND if his competitor had won but wasn't underway. As a subcontractor it would have been impolite to answer either statement but here's the thing. This GC is soliciting and accepting approximately 5-7 bids per trade. Absolutely every project I've ever been awarded I had to compete for. The question becomes, how does this GC compete for my bid? If this GC won even half the projects he competitively bid- he would have the highest hit rate of any company I know. The situation is that he's just not a real contender and his subs know that. He's also unwilling to give bid results so when it's time for me to show my boss that I'm hitting the mark and doing things right - I have nothing to show for it. GC's withhold bid results when they win because they want to give their Project Managers a chance to review the estimators work. If upon review, they find a mistake that means that bidder B was actually low - the Project Manager can award to bidder B. If the bid results were made public right away - Bidder A would contest the award even though they weren't really the low bidder which creates bad blood. It's a policy meant to allow for quality control - it shouldn't affect your outcome as a subcontractor. If I had to guess why this guy withholds bid results until the job's underway I'd say it's because he's holding out hope that the awarded GC will pull their bid before getting underway which might lead to his firm getting the job. If you're not 2nd low - there's very little risk that will happen. This brings me to another point. General Contractors typically blast the marketplace with emails that are either sent by their staff or by a bid service company. Absolutely everything necessary for a bid is dumped into my inbox including nag emails asking if I'll bid. As an average the projects will take me about six hours to bid. I average 320 bids a year. A typical GC bids about 1 or 2 projects a month - some bid five times that. The companies that bid more often - win less often. None - not even one client will share bid results voluntarily. I have to contact them an average of four times to get an answer. The bid results I do get virtually never include actual numbers or accurate percentages. I get "competitive", "close", "I used your number", and so on. As an average, I will only get bid results on 40% of the projects I bid typically three to five weeks after the deadline. This means my feedback look is delayed by a fiscal quarter. Keep in mind that the majority of the GC's bid's are read aloud within 15 minutes of the bid deadline. One lesson taught at the seminar I mentioned earlier was that successful bidding practices means bidding less and winning more. I have a couple of clients that my boss can't seem to admit are bad for business. They bid roughly 50 projects apiece in a given year. Out of those projects, they'll award us one and they'll be terrible projects. Most of the time they tell me that I was low but they didn't win. If you take my billable hourly rate to their annual workload it's obvious that we're losing money by associating with them. As a businessman it's important to see that every time you lose a bid- you must find a way to win other work that's profitable enough to pay for that lost investment. I took a moment a while back and did some calculations. Taking my average win percentage (excluding these two clients) I'd need to bid 105 projects to win sufficient work to break even on the cost of bidding to these two clients. That means that my bosses loyalty to these firms consumes about two thirds of my output! To put that another way all the profit we make in a year comes from whatever I bid approximately two days a week. Not bidding these two clients would literally double the annual profit. Any company with a 2% win rate should overhaul their estimating and marketing programs before wasting any more of the markets time. I genuinely can't imagine how they've stayed in business this long. The takeaway from this is that the perception that loyalty and relationships should trump all in business is based on the presupposition that the work in common will be profitable. GC's who call begging for bids are inevitably out of options because they chase bad work, for broke clients that they never win. It's odd to actually say it, but I genuinely feel that these folks are unethical for wasting the markets time. During my tenure as a GC estimator I had a policy of posting bid results within 24 hours of receiving word that I'd lost. I posted a spreadsheet listing the companies and their bids along with a note on who I'd used and why. I posted the spreadsheet on the same bid letting system we used for the invites so anyone who'd bid got all the results. Within weeks I started receiving bids from subs I'd never heard of before simply because they knew I would provide bid results if I lost. Bidders quickly learned how they compared in the markeplace and adjusted to stay competitive. I got better pricing and won more often than before that policy. The solution to reducing high prices can be as simple as being a better client. Finally, I'd like to share an observation. Business owners are always attracted to "shiny objects" i.e. a project that's burst onto the scene that starts tomorrow, is fully funded, and has incomplete drawings, but if you'll price their alternates, unit prices, and come in under budget the job's yours. These are the hallmarks of a dirtbag client. There's never enough time to fully design it, define it, or price it - but there will be time to ask for umpteen revisions before they call and "negotiate it". "Hey - your number looks good and you're apparent low but we budgeted 20% less waddaya say?" You'll lose money - it'll hurt your business, and trying to outsmart a career grafter isn't a resume builder. The fact is that there will always be a surplus of terrible projects. People don't go out of business because of jobs they lost - they go out of business losing money on jobs they won.

Just a thought but if you're going to use a sledge as an anvil - you might wanna leave the handle on. Some time down the road you may end up with a full on shop and be looking for a sledge for your striker to use. Whenever you get the choice, it's always better to retain full utility with your tools.

Metal heats faster when you're tired, and slower when you're in a hurry. Somehow it's always easier to punch a hole when something is crooked.

I've found that stores that don't stock replacement hammer handle's often do stock replacement shovel handles. I've gotten several good hammer handles out of one shovel handle. I've also caught myself putting a hammer handle on upside down. Often there's less flaring to the entry on the top side which cuts the wood and breaks the handle quickly. I've also learned that making it fit crazy tight didn't make it last longer just harder to install. - too loose and you'll crack the cheeks of the handle trying to wedge it tight.

I think what resonates with me in blacksmithing is often the stuff done with less. To that end I'd agree with the original poster that classes are excellent. As a hobbyist, I'd like to be more effective and precise with my work while still doing it by hand. I had to laugh about the shop walls comment - I too could use some walls around my forge!

Just thought I'd mention that a brass headed hammer can and will spall off chunks if it's used on hard surfaces. I thought it'd be the way to go as well but if you really think about it, it's generally smoother to other operations to work your way towards the center by rotating stock over the hardie. That keeps the cutting edge in the center of the stock and not against the hammer face.

I agree - nicely done.

I've used HF's "drilling hammers" to make a set hammer with. They have a bit more mass to work with.

Most of the newer gun type safes use layers of drywall for the insulation along with an expanding gasket around the door opening. It was certainly interesting that although they're supposedly rated for so many degrees for so many minutes - lots of times the contents get coated in soot from the fire department hosing everything down. The heat resistant gasket isn't waterproof and the water resistant gaskets aren't heat proof. As for the metal's I don't know specifics but some of them have a layer of punched steel with ball bearings placed around the lock mechanism to ensure that you break drill bits when they catch and snag. That plate was also tied to a spring loaded "re-locker" which prevented the door from opening even if the correct combination/ key was entered. Still - you read about folks breaking into safes all the time.

eggwelder - that last line of yours applies to more than just knife making!

There are lots of core drilling firms out there as well. Most of them offer some kind of X-ray or ground penetrating radar imaging should you find yourself working on a structure with vulnerable and concealed stuff hiding in the masonry.

Jim, I can't see those markings on my monitor but I'll take your word for it. Are there markings on both the single hole and the duplex ones? Do they say AWG? I really wish I could see it better - you've got me curious for sure! Maybe I'm just getting stuck on a detail but the locking loop on it strikes me as an indicator of a different purpose. It took extra work to make that loop so they must have had a reason. Every crimping tool I've ever used was designed to magnify force on the crimping surface then get out of the way. There's never a time I can think of where you'd want to crimp and hold like a clamp. I can imagine however that this could be useful as a heat sink when soldering. I'd like to know more about these tools.

Gotta say I don't know that I've ever seen anything like those used for crimping by lineman. I'm a Journeyman Electrician not a lineman and I certainly don't mean to assume I've seen it all. I did notice that the tool is double jointed and sports a profile on the opposite sides that appears to coincide with both jaws making a series of round holes. The gap between points as it's sitting now looks a lot like packing crate staples. The locking ring on the handle seems more in line with a tool intended to clamp and hold stock. To that end it occurred to me that it might be useful as a nail header, a pipe flaring tool, and a staple bender. Another option that comes to mind is that the two grooves might be to clamp wires prior to twisting them. The locking handle might be helpful in that respect. I kinda wonder if it's intended for wire fencing where such operations would be frequent.

I've found that using a really big magic marker on the filed surface will quickly help you to see where you are cutting and where you're not. The marker dries fast so you can re-color the surface as often as you like. Stopping more often will help ensure you're making things better- not worse. I've learned more about my own consistency watching how long it takes to fix a mistake using this method. One other thing not mentioned thus far is footwork. I've found that not moving my feet while doing something that requires consistency is a huge help. It doesn't matter if it's filing, archery, or rolling pie crust. Keep your feet comfortably planted and it's impressive how much accuracy improves.

Hopefully kids in Detroit will be able to read that UN manual - sadly their time is coming. On the plus side, there's plenty of derelict cars for them.

That makes me wonder if in 100 years there'll be an equivalent photo/message going around with a different country and culture depicted. I appreciate the work ethic, and the resourcefulness. I do also wonder why it takes so long for such folks to improve their industry. Then again, I see pictures of Detroit and it's hard to imagine how industry could decline so quickly. Maybe I've answered my own question.

Possible counterweight?