Jump to content
I Forge Iron

The future and availability of forge fuels


Recommended Posts

The original thread contained political comments and was locked.  This is a fresh restart about the future and availability of forging fuels.  

From  internet:

Estimated recoverable coal reserves include only the coal that can be mined with today's mining technology after considering accessibility constraints and recovery factors. EIA estimates U.S. recoverable coal reserves at about 252 billion short tons, of which about 58% is underground mineable coal.

According to U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2019, as of December 31, 2019, U.S. total natural gas proved reserves—estimated as wet gas—which includes hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL)—totaled about 494.9 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). This is the second-highest natural gas reserves total after the record high of 504.5 Tcf at year-end 2018. The year-to-year decrease of about 2% was the first decrease in total U.S. natural gas proved reserves since 2015. The dry natural gas portion of these reserves (after removal of HGL) is about 465.4 Tcf, a decrease of about 3% from the 479.4 Tcf of dry gas reserves in 2018.

Well charcoal used to be farmed sustainably even on an Industrial scale!   When were were touring the hanging rock region Iron Smelters in Ohio each company smelting owned enough "coal lands" that by the time they reached the end of them harvesting and making the trees into charcoal, they could start all over again---about 30 years a cycle IIRC. 

Electrical induction heating depends on the generation of electric which can be made from many sources.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 56
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Well, not all coal is decent forge fuel.  The sub-bituminous coal mined here in Wyoming is not great as a forge fuel, I know, I've tried it, because it does not coke well.  Forge fuel and home heating fuel is never going to be a viable total market for coal.  All we can do is skim a little off the supply for major industrial users.  If there is a demand for industrial coal or coke there will be an opportunity for smiths and other small users to obtain small amounts.  If the industrial uses dry up we will all have to go to propane, natural gas, or induction to heat our metal.

Mines open and close based on economics.  If someone cannot make a profit there is no point in keeping the operation going.

Yes, politics in the sense of regulations plays a part.  All the coal mines in Wyoming owe their existence to the Environmental Policy Act of 1969 which required lower sulfur emissions from coal fired power plants to reduce acid rain, particularly in the eastern US.  Western coal although lower in BTUs/ton and having higher transportation costs than Appalachian or mid-continent coal was cheaper to mine and ship than to treat or reduce the sulfur emissions from the older, eastern mines.

Another possible forge fuel is petroleum coke which is a by product of oil refining.  I've never heard of it being used as a forge fuel but it may be viable.  Also, it may not be easily available in small quantities.

If fossil fuels decline to the point of being unavailable we may all be using induction heating or making/buying our own charcoal.  It probably won't happen in my lifetime but it is possible that the craft will look very different in a century.

"By hammer and hand all arts do stand."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Strange to think that someday *propane* will be regarded  as the "old traditional fuel for Blacksmiths!"  Just like people keep saying that coal was today---even though coal has only been used as a smithing fuel for about 1/4 the time that charcoal has been in use as a smithing fuel! ("Cathedral Forge and Waterwheel", Gies & Gies)

I was reading the BBC website where Historic Railways in the UK were having problems getting good coal with the shutting down of local sources and having to import lower grade coal from eastern Europe that was more expensive and more polluting.  They, like blacksmithing, are such a niche market that we can't keep a mine going just for us. We piggy back on things like metallurgical coke producers  and as "single contract" mines are taking over it's harder to source it in smaller quantities.

Propane and Natural Gas are much more widely used fuels today and I expect we can piggy back on their use for another generation at least!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Building a bit on George's point about economics, I think there's evidence to suggest that contemporary business models lead to very different economic conclusions than our ancestors might have made.

For example, many components in construction have adhered to the "just in time" business model.  The textbook explanation is that a business doesn't invest in materials or storage to maintain stock for their consumers.  Everything is built to order to minimize the money, material, and space, tied up with inventory that hasn't got a buyer.

It made sense, so everybody started doing it, including the raw materials/commodity firms.  There was a lot of attention paid to stuff like throughput and logistics, not so much to alternate material sources, economic fluctuations, new market segments, and advancing technology.

Most modern business majors would scoff at the idea that a company could heavily invest itself into making their products affordable and ubiquitous during an economic downturn.

No, no, better to shutter resources and dim all the lights.  Wait till times are booming again, then stoke everything back up.  The only time anybody talks about modernizing, or expanding a business is when doing so would interfere with the current output.  It's virtually unheard of for these firms to open another facility, most would prefer to buy out a competitor.  Investors prefer the quick return on investment via pump and dump , not the long term gains in market share.  The end result doesn't increase productivity, but it does increase the price of goods sold.

The "old" way to empire building was to continually trim the fat in your operation to where your competitors couldn't keep up.  Make it fast, make it cheap, make it available.  The goal wasn't to align yourself so equally with poorly performing competitors that everyone ends up offering an equally bad value to the consumers.  That's corporatism, which has found kindred spirits in globalism.

As a result, we continually find ourselves in situations where our client can't move in, because we can't finish the job, because we can't get the light fixtures, because the factory can't get a part, because their parts supplier doesn't have enough orders to make it worthwhile.  Mind you, absolutely everyone here get's paid before they'll even record your order.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So if one were to make a prediction about the long-term future of forging fuels, I guess we can expect:

  • The folks using solid fuel
    • will see a continuing decline in the availability and quality of smithing coal as production and industrial demand continue to decline
    • will still be able to buy charcoal (piggybacking on the ongoing popularity of grilling food) or make it, as its source material is renewable.
    • will eventually have to switch to something else
  • The folks using gas  
    • will probably be able to do so longer than the folks using coal
    • will eventually have to switch to something else
  • The folks using induction
    • will be able to do so for a lot longer than everyone else (with the possible exception of the charcoal users)
    • will probably be seeing their electricity coming from a wider variety of sources and producers

I imagine we might also see improvements in biogas production and utilization (both for direct heating and for electricity generation), as well as developments in the use of vegetable oil-burning forges.

And who knows? Maybe at some point we will see tabletop fusion reactors powering forges of all sizes: the JABOF (Just A Box Of Fusion)!             

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The problem with H2 is that it is not as energy dense as more complex molecules.  So, a lot more gas needed for the same BTUs (or more properly, Kcals since Imperial units will probably fade away too).

Another possibility are fuel cells powering electric heat sources.

I like the idea of a JABOF forge.  Maybe we will need to crank a pump instead of a blower to keep the coolant flowing so the forge doesn't go critical.

Another thing to consider is that even now some jurisdictions restrict the use of ANY solid fuel on high pollution days.  This is particularly true of ski towns which are often in narrow valleys which get atmospheric inversions and, of course, EVERY house and condo in a ski town HAS to have a wood burning fireplace.  I have seen ski towns with thousands of wood smoke plumes rising into the sky on a still day.  I could see situations which where there could be legal prohibitions on any hydrocarbon fuel because of either air pollution or global warming considerations.  Probably not in most of our lifetimes but I wouldn't bet against some of our younger folk seeing something similar in their lives.

"By hammer and hand all arts do stand."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

George N.M.  before i retired, i had a shop in s.w. colorado and did a lot of work for the trophy homes in Telluride and Aspen. if you built a home and wanted a wood burning fireplace, you had to apply for a permit and they were very limited and also very expensive. therefor i made a lot of doors for gas burning fireplaces which didnot need a permit. i dont remember the exact permit cost but in the early 2000,s they were up in the thousands of dollars. it seems like around 5 to 6 thousand.  Smokey

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, George N. M. said:

forge.  Maybe we will need to crank a pump instead of a blower to keep the coolant flowing so the forge doesn't go critical.

A Three Mile Forge incident because a piece of scale worked it's way into your shoe. :lol:

Pnut

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How do we have this discussion with out politics? Coal, NG, etc. are huge political issues at this time.

Anyway here goes. One of the problems with availability is developing nations. 80% +/- of coal usage is in the US, Russia, and Asia. Of that almost 70% is in China alone. China has been building coal fire power plants for a few years now and has drastically increased their consumption of coal.  China is not as coal rich as the US so a lot of our coal is exported to China and various other developing nations. Industrial use of coal has almost doubled since 2000 and is forecasted to keep increasing until 2040. 

One other solution could be manure. Oh, yeah the fresh smell of burning poo in the morning, smells like...exactly what you would think it smells like. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is true, and another example of how the real-world application of a particular technology is never perfectly efficient -- although sometimes a technology that isn't as efficient but is easier to use wins out. In the case of hydrogen, it's not particularly useful as a means of generating energy, but it has some advantages as a way of transporting energy from its source of generation to its point of use.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, BillyBones said:

Oh, yeah the fresh smell of burning poo in the morning, smells like...exactly what you would think it smells like. 

Politics?

Pebble bed fission reactors are pretty self regulating though it's awfully clean energy.

Frosty The Lucky.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In my situation, if coal becomes more difficult to obtain (and expensive), I for one would switch over to charcoal.  The problem these days with charcoal, it seems, is that none of the charcoal manufacturers will sell bulk to consumers, only commercial with a tax ID.  I would love to get a pickup bed load of charcoal, but the bagged consumer char is pretty expensive considering how fast charcoal can burn.  Making charcoal is of course an option, but at my place I don't have the room to make it and don't want to fight the mess...getting picky, I know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, arkie said:

getting picky, I know.

Not picky: practical. What's appropriate for one person's situation might not be for another.

The nice thing about charcoal is that it is a renewable fuel that can use raw material (such as construction debris) that would otherwise go into a landfill. I remember reading about a power plant somewhere in Europe (maybe in Holland?) that combined a generation plant with an large willow coppice, so they were constantly growing their own fuel. Not perfect, but a lot closer to carbon-neutral than a lot of other methods.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...